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Monday, October 22, 2007

Contradicting fall game sales predictions debunked

OK, it's not that I don't like the guy, but I when he does video gaming analysis, this guy at CNet falls flatter than me.

Below is a version of the comments I left on his blog. Last time I did this, he wrote a defensive response post, aimed at "people", and never referencing my comments. Let's see if we get a repeat infraction.

Like I said, I don't have an issue with him. He's got a good gig (more power to him). But folks like him (and I) need to recognize (and acknowledge) where we're stepping out of "analysis" and into "opinion".

Anyway, read his whole post for context, but he basically says this is his projection for each of the consoles this holiday:
  • Overall Xbox 360 outlook for the holiday season: mediocre.
  • Overall Nintendo Wii outlook for the holiday season: strong
  • Overall Sony Playstation 3 outlook: moderate to strong

And he says parents not able to find a $250 Wii will buy a $400 Ps3. Why they would do that rather than a $280 or $350 Xbox 360 feels a bit off to me. Maybe he's thinking parents will recognize the Sony brand over the Microsoft brand?


It's an interesting analysis, but it is lacking (and not accurate) in so many areas.

Many of the comments in response to his post point out the major misses in the article.

In addition, I'd say his analysis neglects basic market factors, and doesn't even address things like the recently released NPD numbers, which paint a very different picture than he does. And while every company is going to have their spin on these numbers, Sony's "forward-looking" take is pretty telling.

He's also inconsistent in pointing to bundles as being factors (or non-factors) in holiday sales, but doesn't mention things like the recently released Xbox 360 bundles (the Arcade bundle and the Forza 2 / Marvel Ultimate Alliance bundle).

On the PS3 side, you doesn't go into any detail about the brief history of (and differences between) the price-dropped 80GB, 20 GB, phased-out 60 GB, and recently-released (but feature reduced) 40 GB models.

And he says with Halo 3 out and Mass Effect the only exclusive this holiday, the 360 won't see enough of an upswing from those titles.

Seriously? Does he think the Halo 3 tailing occurred that fast?

I would argue that console exclusives (like Halo 3 or Gears of War) are console sellers, Mass Effect will likely do far better than for which he credits it (the Electronic Arts acquisition by itself is arguably indicative of this market confidence). And I don't think the "BioShock boost" is over yet, either.

And I would argue the non-exclusives are huge console draws (they are for me; I'm looking for a console's total gaming portfolio which is why Microsoft is first for me for its retail offerings; Nintendo is second because of its great Virtual Console offerings, and Sony is last).

For example, "Oh, I can also play Call of Duty 4 on Xbox 360, which is a better FPS platform? Oh, Madden '08 looks and plays ridiculously better on the 360 than the PS3? I don't need to buy a PS3 to get Devil May Cry 4? I can play Orange Box (definitely) and Assassin's Creed (probably) earlier on the 360 than the PS3? Etc.

Again, the guy has some interesting commentary, but it's super lightweight, and way behind (both in terms of time and depth) industry analyst professionals like Michael Pachter or Colin Sebastian.

He also trumpets a previous forward-looking post he did as pseudo credentials for his analysis. Avoiding a rebuttal to the idea of "Why 'Halo 3' will decide the Xbox 360's fate", I'm not sure I'd recommend trumpeting a September Halo 3 post written the day before the game was released -- when industry analysts like Pachter and Sebastian had posted deeper, more accurate predictions weeks (in some cases, months) before. And those guys, as storied as they are in their dedicated vertical market, are only "right" around 60% of the time (in a non-representative, but random, and repeated, an non-overlapping personal sampling).

Anyway, those are my thoughts. Looking at comments written in response to his post while I was writing this one, though, looks like I'm not alone in my grousing.

Hey, for those of you who have been writing to complain about me not having done a "Crotchety Gamer" post in a while ... you're welcome.

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Saturday, July 21, 2007

"Gears of War" comics?

Maybe, if a news post on the comic book publisher Boom! Studios is any hint:
"Boom! Studios has an exciting new publishing plan for the rest of 2007 and 2008. Panelists talk about Boom!'s new partnerships with Disney, Paramount, and Epic Games, their existing partnerships, and the many exciting new projects coming out from Boom! Studios. Ross Richie, Adam Fortier, and Andrew Crosby
(creator of the hit SCI FI series Eureka) talk about all things Boom!"
I'll let you know from San Diego next week.

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Monday, July 09, 2007

PS3 price drop and fallout ...

There are no secrets anymore.

Sony announced yesterday they're dropping the price of the 60GB PS3 -- from $599 to $499 -- and introducing a new 80GB SKU at the old $599 price point. The 20GB model, which was at the $499 price point, was discontinued some time ago.

Everyone from Forbes to Business Week to Bloomberg Worldwide is carrying the story today, and while there's some interesting analysis, it's not real deep, and (from the mainstream press), not very historied.

All of these things had been out on the Net for a while, so this was no real surprise.

Discontinuing the 20GB model? Check.

The creation of the 80GB model? Check.

The $100 price drop? Check. Check. Check.

This last one ties into this post's opening statement -- There are no secrets anymore.

Rumors started sprouting up on this at least on July 5th, with leaks from Circuit City, Best Buy, and Target. There was confirmation that at least two Target stores broke the street date of the $100 price drop starting Friday.

The bigger deal is Sony was forced to announce the price drop yesterday (July 8th), rather than as part of their E3 press conference (scheduled for Wednesday, July 11th) -- That's a 3-4 day push. Power to the InterWeb Peeps. Or something.

(And not to overly badmouth Sony on this front; Microsoft's hand was similarly forced on the reveal of the Xbox 360 Elite.)

So, what does this mean, from a business perspective, and to gamers?

Sony thinks it'll mean they'll double their PS3 shipping estimates. Analysts (like Michael Pachter) think they'll at best increase them by 50%.

Me? I think the other consoles will benefit.

First off, at $250, I don't think Nintedo's Wii is impacted at all. If they become impacted, Nintendo has room to drop the console to $225 or $199. They're in a sweet spot -- if they could just keep up with demand.

Let's look at the PS3's new high-end SKU (hey, anyone else remember Sony saying "no" to multiple SKUs?). For $100 more you get 20GB more and a copy of MotorStorm. Not bad, but not a great deal, by any stretch.

For $20 less, you get the Xbox 360 Elite, which has 40GB more hard drive space than Sony's new high-end -- and HDMI output and everything else. I can't tell whether the Elite's been in demand or short-supplied (if so, why? To increase the perception of demand?), but starting last week, I saw in-stock Elite's at GameStops, Targets, and Wal-Marts. Something's up.

But what you do get for $20 more paid to Sony is Blu-ray DVD. That's a $200 external (HD DVD) add-on from Microsoft.

But let's just look at the console portion, since it looks like people aren't buying the PS3 for the Blu-ray.

What if Microsoft drops the price of the Xbox 360? Currently, there are 3 Xbox 360 SKUs:
  • Core -- $299, wired controller, and no hard drive (aka, "The useless SKU", IMHO)
  • Premium (or "Pro") -- $399, wireless controller, headset, and 20GB hard drive
  • Elite -- $479 -- $479, wireless controller, headset, 120GB hard drive, 120GB hard drive, and sexy black

If you go to Xbox.com, you'll see something pretty interesting. While the "Core" is stilled called "Core", the "Premium" is now simply listed as the "Xbox 360 System". This is huge, as it implies this is the mainstream SKU, and the Elite is the upper SKU.

Conceivably, this means "goodbye" to the Core (please), and a price drop on both the mid-range and Elite SKUs. Or, on the outside, reduction in product line to just the Elite, and a price drop.

Microsoft has said they're working to shrink their 90nm Xbox 360 CPU chipset down to the 65nm scale, which are (obviously) smaller components, but they also use less electricity, run cooler (a boon to 360 owners and the alleged 33-502% failure rate), and most importantly to the above argument, are cheaper to mass-produce. What hasn't seemed to make general news is they're also looking to do the same to the GPU chipset, further reducing cost.

Analyst projections have set an Xbox 360 price drop for this fall, but if Microsoft's chip roadmap is on track, they have room to do an early price drop, if the Sony announcement forces their hand.

Most likely though, in the face of their financials hit related to the "Red Ring of Death" 3-year warranty announcement, Microsoft may choose to tough it out until this fall, and announce a price drop at the Halo 3 launch, or (honestly) afterwards, if that game drives high console purchases at the current price points (why drop prices if people are buying your product at a higher margin?).

As an aside, people shouldn't badmouth Sony too much for dropping the price of the PS3 as being indicative of their backs being against the wall. As they'll tell you, they've moved more PS3s in the same time period than they did PS2s. Now, that's positive spin, as that's shipped units (not necessarily purchased); the PS2 was selling to a less game-available market; they didn't have the competition of a resurrected Nintendo they helped almost kill (or the lack of SEGA competition, which they did kill); and they didn't have to deal with the upstart Xbox (which wasn't even supposed to be a contender, and now dominates in some ways). And, percentage-wise, PS3 sales suck compared to the PS2 sales.

And keep in mind Sony dropped the price of the PS2 eight months after launch, and they're dropping the PS3 seven months after launch. Know you're history, kids.

Speaking of which, what about Sony's still market-dominating PS2? Did you miss that a slimmer, lighter (900 to 600 grams for the base unit, and 350 to 250 grams for the AC adapter) version is creeping into the marketplace? This smaller unit is cheaper to produce, so there could be a fall or holiday drop (from $139 to $99), should Sony want to further muddy the waters.

So what's the net-net?

Expect an interesting E3 this week, as Sony tries to sell how big their price drop and new SKU is, and the other console makers do (or don't) react to it.

More telling will be sales of all consoles in the next several weeks (the price drop for the 60GB PS3 is rumored to be effective July 12th, but the 80GB SKU won't be available until August, which may cause potential buyers to not act on the price drop, as they wait for the upper-end SKU's availability).

And what comes out of E3 this week will be telling. What's gamers' perception of the console of choice, based on games introduced at the show? For example, if Microsoft's biggest announcement is Gears of War on PC, that doesn't really help the 360, per se.

This fall and holiday will be even more interesting, as the Xbox 360 install base is re-assessed on the basis of Halo 3 sales and Sony competition; Sony reassess based on the price cut and new SKU, and Nintendo re-assess based on catching up to demand, and any impact to a possibly reduced PS2.

For analysts, a lot of fodder for ivory tower theories. For business folks, a lot of data and trends to assess, and and for gamers, just good times ahead as all of the console makers try to drive price down and increase the quality and content of service and product offerings to get you to buy their consoles.

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Thursday, June 14, 2007

Back in the saddle ... (Updated)

I haven't written in a week. Fine. I've been on vacation.

Apologies to those of you who hang on my constant industry updates and insights, and ...

Y'know what, screw it. People who need daily updates probably stopped reading this thing a week ago.

For those sentimentalists among you, I'm going getting into the WayBack Machine and doing a post similar to the original "Xbox Buddies Newsflash" of years ago -- lotta brief summaries.

In brief:
  • Video game comics
  • Tenchu Z
  • Castlevania film update
  • Gamecock's EIEIO
  • Halo 3 "goodies"
  • Soul Calibur IV (video)
    (Updated)
  • Xbox 360 changes
    (Updated)
  • David Jaffe
  • Gears of War DLC
  • 3D Realms announces announcements
  • BioWare's 2009 MMO
  • Carmack's game engine (video)
  • Junction Point updates
  • Steamed Capcom?
  • Sony launches blog
  • Dark Sector due 2008
  • Episodic content expands
  • Usability and Human Factors
  • Peter Cullen (video)
Here we go ...

Video game comics:

It's not just Halo and Marvel -- now Gearbox Software and Dynamite Entertainment are going make a comic book series based off upcoming Brothers in Arms: Hell's Highway. Relative newcomer Dynamite is pretty amazing to me (check out their titles), and I'm looking forward to more comic book goodness from them.

Tenchu Z:

Tenchu Z finally hits the Xbox 360 stateside. The Japanese demo I played way back when left me underwhelmed, but I'm sure this thing has gotten at least two coats of polish since then. And there's the overwhelmingly redeeming facet of getting to fight pirates -- as a ninja. Seriously.

Castlevania film update:

Paul W.S. Anderson (Mortal Kombat, AVP: Alien vs. Predator) is out. Sylvain White (Stomp the Yard, Ronin) is the new Castlevania hotness. To quote Kotaku's Michael Fahey, "So we have a relatively untested director with one major sleeper hit under his belt, but White is also slated to direct Frank Miller's Ronin, and Miller's properties aren't exactly fluff that studios hand out to just anyone."

Gamecock's EIEIO:

This is mainly for its local Austin connection (and my respect for these particular industry folks). but indie-publisher-looking-to-break-the-deep-pockets-mold Gamecock Media is throwing a party at the same time as this year's greatly reduced Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3). Gamecock's shindig is called the "Expo for Interactive Entertainment: Independent and Original" ("EIEIO"; those guys are nothing, if not punsters).

The gig looks to be shaping up to be less inclusive and more Gamecock-y, but they've got 6 titles for which I'm already stoked, and promise two "major unannounced next-gen titles" (does anyone ever promise two minor titles?). I'm guessing at least one of those two will be from Big Rooster.

Gamecock has not knocked down my door and invited me to their party. I'll let you know if that changes.

Halo 3 "goodies":

Can't get enough Halo 3, now that the beta is over?

Get ready for two, limited-edition wireless controllers (one Spartan, one Covenant), and a limited-edition wireless headset. The controllers will set you back an extra $10 (at $59.99 MSP) over the non-LE wireless controllers, but you get a free Halo 3 figurine. Given the art and figurine are designed by Todd McFarlane (an amazing business and licensing creative), I'm looking for pretty-to-look-at, non-functioning tchotkies. One would hope this applies just to the figurine (Toddy, I like your stuff, but if they aren't fully articulated, it's just your take on the Precious Moments concept).

Better picts of the accessories are available at spawn.com.

(I wonder if JoyRide Studios lost the Halo franchise to McFarlane Toys? That would be sad.)

Soul Calibur IV:

I'm sorry, but weapons-gimmicky button-mashing franchise Soul Calibur is my favorite fighting game. I'm so happy Soul Calibur II now plays on the Xbox 360. And I don't feel like I missed out on the PS2-only Soul Calibur III, given critical and popular reception. But Soul Calibur IV looks to add beautiful interlocking fiber armor and more ... Ivy (fans of the franchise know what I mean). And, so far they're guaranteeing 60fps and 1080p when the game hits sometime in 2008. Buttery ...




UPDATED: I like this open letter to Namco posted on Kotaku.com.

Xbox 360 changes:

Picts of cracked open repaired Xbox 360s reveal something interesting. A new (additional) heat sink / pipe combo.

So, if we tally up the following:
  • Heat sink / pipe combo (now)
  • Quieter DVD drives (now; in new units and some repaired units)
  • Smaller, cooler, cheaper CPUs (July-ish)
  • Smaller, Cooler GPU (Fall 2007)

By this Christmas, we should see a quieter, more robust 360 -- a scant three years after the console's release.

UPDATED: From Microsoft (a la Kotaku.com):

"Regularly updating console components is commonplace within the industry
and is a standard aspect of the business for a variety of reasons including cost
reduction, improved manufacturability and improved performance."

David Jaffe:

The dude behind God of War and Calling All Cars might be making good on his "going independent" mutterings. Cell phone picts have surfaced on Jaffe's site, indicating an in-process build out, possibly of a development studio. Will he become a Sony "Second-party" Dev (playing it safe), or will he branch out and show some Wii, 360, PC, and other love? We'll see ...

Gears of War DLC:

A Gears of War free title update (with new achievements) hits late tonight (June 14th) / tomorrow. It'll add eight new achievements for the "Annex" game-play type and Hidden Front Maps. It also includes an improved version of the "Roadie Run" controls.

Also, according to Major Nelson:

'The "Annex" gametype is now available for free and the "Hidden Fronts" Multiplayer Map Pack is available on Xbox LIVE Marketplace for 800 Microsoft Points. All four multiplayer maps will be available for free after Sept. 3, 2007.'

3D Realms announces announcements:

3D Realms, the developers of the forever-in-development Duke Nukem Forever, have two upcoming non-DNF announcements. Says creative director Raphael Van Lierop:

"I can say that we have a big announcement coming in the next four weeks, and I'm not sure, but I believe we have another major announcement coming in the next four to six months... while I can't say exactly what these are, are they about Duke Nukem Forever? No."

BioWare's 2009 MMO:

BioWare Austin's (Star Wars-themed?) MMO opus won't be hitting until 2009. Yes, "9". Last I heard, they were using a middleware solution so they wouldn't have to build their own engine, so maybe all the extra time is for incredible MMO add-ons and deepenings. PvP newness. Branching paths to the nth power. Cross-platform play. Voice acting for every NPC organism (call me). Important stuff like that.

Carmack's game engine:

Demoing during a Steve Job's keynote address, id Software's John Carmack showed off the new "id Tech 5" game engine -- designed for Xbox 360, PS3, PC, and ... Macintosh. Looks slick, promises to make amazing development easy, blah blah blah.

It is cool that it seems to decouple the game play from the asset reworking, so, after finalizing game play, you can still "put artists on it to go ahead and make it look as good as we have time and resources to do."



Junction Point updates:

Another on the Austin gaming connection, over at the recently reworked junctionpoint.com, new concept art for unnamed game(s) is showing up throughout the pages. And there's a new, bare-bones WordPress blog for Warren Spector and other Junction Point devs to use as a pipe through which to share their brilliance with the rest of us.

Steamed Capcom?:

Capcom's jumping on Valve's Steam distribution / download service, which is huge. Microsoft, Sony, GameTap, RealNetworks, Valve -- there are a ton big (and a plethora of small) players in this space. As broadband speeds increase, ultra-wideband wireless becomes a reality, and fiber becomes the norm, the winners are going to win big.

Sony launches blog:

Joining the now-gen, Sony has launched an official Playstation blog, with the inaugural post by none other than President & CEO Jack Tretton. Some good, reasonably transparent stuff here.

Dark Sector due 2008:

For gamers, this holiday is going to rock. For those (like me) waiting for Digital Extremes' Dark Sector, you're going to need to wait until after the holiday. According to D3Publishing:

"We've decided to pull Dark Sector out of a very crowded holiday season and it is now slated for release in Q1 2008."

Episodic content expands:

Telltale Games got a $6 million influx. What they're using it for is more of their successful multi-platform episodic content.

Honestly, "Episodic Content" and "Digital Distribution" are two of the two New Hotnesses of gaming, so Telltale is on the forefront, and playing this wicked smart.

Usability and Human Factors:

Usability is not a choice. Good usability is. So I like this apropos Penny Arcade strip. Devs, take note.

Peter Cullen:

Peter Cullen, the voice of Optimus Prime in the 80s cartoon, upcoming Michael Bay Movie, and video game tie-in, gives a brief video explanation of his role and the voice of Optimus. As a voice actor, I'm inspired. As a fanboy, I have goosebumps.

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Thursday, May 03, 2007

New "Gears of War" maps ...

Epic Games has just released the "Hidden Fronts" Multiplayer Map Pack 2, which includes four new Gears of War maps and will set you back 800 Points ($10 USD, per the Microsoft Points Converter). The maps will be free after September 3, 2007.

Here are the maps:
  • Bullet Marsh -- "Kryll-infested swamp"
  • Garden -- "overgrown and crumbling conservatory"
  • Process -- "subterranean Imulsion processing plant"
  • Subway -- "Timgad’s Central Subway Station"

Full details here.

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